Asinalo nofifi lokuba umhla wokuGqibela uRhwebo we-2019 MLB uza kuzisa

Ukuba kukho ekufutshane MLB ilingana kwisiphithiphithi sasimahla esibambe i-NBA kule nyanga, ngumhla wokugqibela wokurhweba, isiganeko esinye kwikhalenda ye-baseball esinokuthembela kuyo ukukhuthaza amaqela ukuba aphucule uluhlu lwawo ngokungqongqo. I-offseasons ye-MLB iyancipha, iphoqa abanye abaxhasi bamahhala ukuba bahlale kwiimarike ekuqeqesheni intwasahlobo okanye emva koyilo lwangoJuni, kwaye nakwiintlanganiso zasebusika zikaDisemba azisekho indawo ethembekileyo yomsebenzi omkhulu wokuthengiselana. Kodwa i-31 kaJulayi yamva nje iphelile uxakekile kunakuqala , enkosi kwiiklabhu zokugcina ikhadi lasendle lesibini kungquzulwano, umnqweno onganelisekiyo wamaqela wemibhobho yoncedo, kwaye, mhlawumbi, i-stratified iqela elikhulu Ulwakhiwo oludale ungqamaniso lwamanani phakathi kwabathengi nabathengisi. Umhla wokugqibela ka-2019, ngoku ungaphantsi kweeveki ezintathu, wahlukile kwixesha elidlulileyo ngeendlela ezimbini ezibalulekileyo, ezenza eli xesha lorhwebo linomdla kakhulu esilibonileyo kwixesha elithile.

Ukungaqhelekanga kokuqala kubangelwa utshintsho lwesakhiwo. NgoMatshi, i-MLB kunye ne-MLB Players Association ibhengezwe uthotho lwe ukulungiswa kwimithetho, enye yazo ibifuna i ukuphelisa yokuxolelwa kwezohwebo ezazifudula zivumela urhwebo oluthile ukuba lwenzeke phakathi komhla wokugqibela wokurhweba we-31 kaJulayi kunye nomhla wokugqibela we-31 ka-Agasti. Ngenxa yenkqubo yokurhoxisa yaseByzantine, ukutshintshiselana okumbalwa kwagqitywa ngo-Agasti kunoJulayi, xa ishishini lalinokuqhutywa ngezithintelo ezimbalwa. Kodwa amaqela aqhubekile nokucinga kakuhle kwiintsuku zenja kwaye ngamanye amaxesha enza iintshukumo ezichaphazela ugqatso lwepennant, uchungechunge lwe-postseason, kunye namaxesha onyaka azayo: UDoyle Alexander kaJohn Smoltz (nge-12 ka-Agasti ka-1987), uLarry Andersen kaJeff Bagwell (nge-30 ka-Agasti). Ngo-1990), UJustin Verlander wabadlali abambalwa abancinci Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku abakabikho kakhulu (nge-31 ka-Agasti ka-2017). Kulo nyaka, abaphathi abaqhelekileyo abayi kuba nenketho yokujikeleza kunye nokujongana ngo-Agasti; abadlali abanako ukuthengiswa emva kwale nyanga, nto leyo ibeka uxinzelelo kumaqela ngoku.



Ukulinganisa ukuba ungakanani umsebenzi worhwebo esinokuwubona ngoJulayi ngenxa yokuba i-outlet ka-Agasti iphelile, makhe sijonge kuwo wonke umsebenzi worhwebo kwiminyaka esixhenxe ukususela kwiziko lekhadi lesibini lasendle ngo-2012. Lo mfanekiso ungezantsi ubonisa urhwebo lulonke olwenziwe ikhalenda nganye umhla ukusuka ku-2012 ukuya ku-2018.



U-Agasti wayeyinyanga yesithathu eyona nto isebenzayo kwimisebenzi yorhwebo kweso sithuba, emva kukaJulayi noDisemba, ibalwa malunga ne-14 yeepesenti yazo zonke iintengiso. Malunga neepesenti ze-29 yazo zonke iintengiso zenzeke ngoJulayi, oku kuthetha ukuba u-Agasti wayephantse abe sisiqingatha (i-47 ekhulwini) esebenzayo ngoJulayi. Igrafu elandelayo ayibonisi nje inani lorhwebo, kodwa inani lilonke labadlali (kubandakanywa abadlali beligi abancinci, kodwa singabali abadlali abaza kuthiywa kamva) kunye nabadlali be-MLB batshintshiselwane ngoJulayi nango-Agasti ngamnye ukusukela ngo-2012, kunye neqela elipheleleyo leWAR. amaxabiso abo badlali. Urhwebo luka-Agasti luthande ukuba bunzulu buhamba ngaphezu kokutshiza okukhulu, ngoko ke ixabiso lilonke lexesha elipheleleyo labadlali elithe laphathwa ngo-Agasti libe malunga ne-19 ekhulwini lexabiso elihambelanayo lexesha elipheleleyo labadlali abathe baphathwa ngoJulayi.

Ukuba zonke iintengiso ezazisetyenziswa ngo-Agasti zifudukele nje ngoJulayi, kwaye yonke enye into yahlala ifana, sinokulindela ukubona phantse i-50 yeepesenti ngaphezulu komsebenzi worhwebo ngoJulayi, kwaye phantse i-20 yeepesenti ngaphezulu kwamaqela okutshintsha imveliso. Isiphumo siya kuba ngumhla wokugqibela obambekayo, onokuba luxinzelelo kwiiseva zoRhwebo lwe-MLB kodwa kumnandi kubalandeli. Kakade ke, loo nto ilula kakhulu ukucinga. Ukuba umnxeba wokugqibela kwi-ballpark unyuswe ukuya kwi-inning yesihlanu endaweni yesixhenxe, oko akuthethi ukuba wonke umntu uya kuthenga iibhiya ezininzi kwisihlanu ukwenza ezo bebeza kuzithenga kamva. Ngokufanayo, akunakwenzeka ukuba amaqela aya kwenza amashishini amaninzi ngoJulayi njengoko ayeqhele ukwenza ngoJulayi no-Agasti, ngenxa yezizathu ezimbalwa.



Enye into, umfanekiso we-playoff awucacanga kangako nge-31 kaJulayi kunokuba unjalo ngo-Agasti 31. Oko kuncipha kwengqiniseko kunokwenza amaqela amaninzi abe mathidala ukuzibophelela kwikhosi yokongeza okanye yokuthoba, nangona esazi ukuba lelona thuba labo lokwenjenjalo. . Rhoqo ngonyaka, amanye amaqela afumana ukucaca okwaneleyo (okanye ukuxhalaba) malunga namathemba abo asemva kwesizini phakathi kokuphela kukaJulayi kunye nokuphela kuka-Agasti ukoyisa ukuchasana kwabo nokomeleza iirosta zabo okanye ukusika isithiyelo. Ezinye zaloo ngcaciso okanye ukuxhalaba kunokuvela kukulimala: Amashishini amaninzi ka-Agasti asetyenziselwa ukwenzeka ekuphenduleni abantu ababuleweyo emva koJulayi 31. Urhwebo lweVerlander ngumzekelo weklasi; nge-31 kaJulayi 2017, u-Astros GM uJeff Luhnow wayekhululekile ukuma pat, kodwa emva kuka-Dallas Keuchel igxekwe esidlangalaleni ukungasebenzi kwakhe, iqela lahamba 11-17 ngo-Agasti, ukulimala kwaphazamisa abasebenzi be-pitching, kwaye uVerlander waqhubeka bonisa ukuba ukuvuka kwakhe kwakhona kwakuyinyani, uLuhnow wenza intshukumo enokuba nayo uhambe ngokuchasene nemodeli yakhe .

Iintetho zokurhweba zithatha ixesha, kwaye ii-ofisi zangaphambili azinayo i-bandwidth engenamkhawulo wokuziqhuba, enye into enokuthintela ezininzi izivumelwano zokuhla kwinyanga enye njengoko zisetyenziselwa ukwenzeka kabini. Ngaphezu koko, akufani nokuba amaqela avaliwe ekurhwebeni ngaphambili EyeKhala; sinokubona amaqela amaninzi etsala i-trigger ngexesha le-offseason okanye kwiinyanga zokuqala zesizini ngokuphendula kumhla wokugqibela onzima. Oomatiloshe be-GM uJerry Dipoto, umzekelo, bajongana no-Edwin Encarnación kunye noJay Bruce kwi-Yankees kunye ne-Phillies, ngokulandelanayo, ngoJuni, nangona urhwebo lwangaphambi kukaJulayi lwalungabonakali ngaphambili kwaye kuyingozi ukufunda kakhulu kumsebenzi worhwebo wendoda. I-WHO zange iyamisa ukurhweba, nkqu neyakhe ibhedi yasesibhedlele .

Nangona kunjalo, ukudibanisa le mihla mibini ebekiweyo kufuneka ikhokelele ekwandeni komsebenzi ngexesha elibekiweyo phantsi kweemeko eziqhelekileyo. Akucaci ukuba okuqhelekileyo kuchaza imarike yehlobo.



Ngekhefu le-All-Star yalo nyaka, amaqela amathandathu kuphela-i-Orioles, i-Royals, i-Tigers, i-Blue Jays, i-Mariners, kunye ne-Marlins-yayingaphezu kwemidlalo esixhenxe ngaphandle kweyona ndawo isondeleyo. Oko kulula elona nani lisezantsi lamaqela aphumayo esiwabonile ngexesha lokuphumla nakweliphi na ixesha ukususela ekufikeni kwekhadi lesibini lasendle.

Ngoku, oko akuthethi ukuba amanye amaqela angama-24 onke kwi yona, ngokuchanekileyo. Amaqela angaphantsi nje komdlalo wesixhenxe-intsilelo-i-White Sox, i-Mets, i-Giants-zezo zonke iinjongo ezisebenzayo ngokulambisa ngaphantsi kwayo kunamaqela alandela ngokuphindwe kabini imidlalo emininzi. Njengoko igrafu ilandelayo esekelwe kwi I-baseball Prospectus amathuba okudlala ukusuka kwikhefu ngalinye le-All-Star libonisa, nangona kunjalo, ukwahlukana phakathi kwe-sextet yamaqela amabi ngokwenene kunye neqela leeklabhu ezisondelelene ngokwaneleyo ukuphupha ingxabano yekhadi lasendle libanzi ngokwaneleyo ukuvelisa ipateni engazange ibonwe phantsi kwefomathi yeplayoff yangoku.

Iintandokazi zolwahlulo lwangoku (ezimelwe ngumgca omnyama-oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka) zinethuba eliphezulu lomndilili wokubambelela ukuze bathathe izihloko zabo ngokufanelekileyo kunaso nasiphi na isityalo sezahlulo ezizithandayo ukusuka ku-2012 ukuya ku-2018. Iintandokazi zangoku zamakhadi asendle, nangona kunjalo, zineemfuno zazo. ngaphantsi I-avareji yamathuba okulwa nabaceli-mngeni babo kunalo naliphi na iqela langaphambili leentandokazi zamakhadi asendle. Nangona ukulingana kwi-NL Central, apho i yokugqibela -indawo iiReds zikufutshane neyokuqala kune Isibini -Iqela lendawo kulo naliphi na elinye icandelo, uninzi lweenkokeli zecandelo zihleli kakuhle ngokwaneleyo kangangokuba azinayo inkuthazo enkulu yokongeza ngexesha elibekiweyo ngeenjongo zokugcina ezo ndawo ziphezulu (nangona zisenokufuna ukongeza ngo-Oktobha) . Kwaye nokuba bebefuna ukufowunela abakhweli bamahashe, akukho lula ukubona ukuba lo mkhosi uvela phi, kuba amaqela amaninzi akumgama obambekayo okwindawo yekhadi lasendle kangangokuba abafuni ukuyithengisa okanye Kulumkele ukurhoxa kwabalandeli babo ukuba bayavuma.

Ukwenza ingxaki, amathambo amaqela akwimidlalo esixhenxe okanye ngaphezulu ngaphandle kwendawo yokudlala sele echongwe ecocekile. I-Orioles kunye neRoyals iyoyikeka kakhulu isizini yesibini ilandelelana , kunye neentsalela ezivelisayo zamaqela abo okugqibela aphumeleleyo zihambile. I-Tigers, i-White Sox, kunye ne-Marlins sele yenze urhwebo olukhulu oluthe lwahlutha iirosta zabo eziphambili zeligi; bakwi-nadirs yabo okanye (kwimeko yaseChicago) esondela ekuveleni kwisigaba sokwakha kwakhona. AbaseMariners bachithe ixesha lokuthengisa kwaye, njengoko sele kukhankanyiwe, sele behambile ngoJuni. IiMets zazibona njengabakhuphisi kwaye zisahleli elucingweni malunga nokuthengisa.

Kukho amabhaso ambalwa alawulwa liqela, anexabiso eliphantsi apha (uMatthew Boyd, uMarcus Stroman, uWhit Merrifield), amanye amalulwane anomtsalane (Miguel Rojas, Domingo Santana, James McCann, Leury García, Eric Sogard, Trey Mancini, Nicholas Castellanos, Todd Frazier), amagqala ambalwa (Mitch Haniger, Alex Gordon, José Abreu) ngenxa ezahlukeneyo izizathu khange kubonakale ngathi kunokwenzeka ukuba bahambe, irenti enokubakho uZack Wheeler, kwaye, njengesiqhelo, izihlanguli (Shane Greene, Alex Colomé, Mychal Givens, Ian Kennedy). Ayiyonto leyo, kodwa ayizukuhamba indlela ende ekuzaliseni uluhlu lwabakhuphisanayo ngokujonga ukuba mangaphi na iiklabhu ezinokuthi zilume.

I-imeyile (iyafuneka) Ngokubhalisa, uyavumelana nowethu Isaziso saBucala kunye nabasebenzisi baseYurophu bayavumelana nomgaqo-nkqubo wokudluliselwa kwedatha. Bhalisa

Kusekho ixesha ngaphambi komhla wokugqibela, kwaye ibala lokudlala linokuba lincinci kakhulu liza nge-31 kaJulayi. ngokwaneleyo ukuxabana ukuba bangabacaphukisa abalandeli ukuba baqala ukuthengisa, kodwa iiveki ezimbalwa ezinamatye zingayitshintsha loo nto. Kukho, nangona kunjalo, ukuba umhla wokugqibela odibeneyo wenza impembelelo yayo ivakale; ubuncinci amanye ala maqela aya kuba ephumile kugqatso nge-31 ka-Agasti, kodwa kuya kuba nzima ukukhetha indlela kule nyanga.

Kule meko ingaqinisekanga, elinye iqela limele ukuba zombini liphumile kuyo kwaye lisondele ekuqaliseni ukwakha kwakhona kunokuba ligqibe elinye: Iingxilimbela, ezisileleko semidlalo emi-5.5 kugqatso lwekhadi lesibini lasendle le-NL liphikisa i-negative-70 baleka umahluko kunye nenye ye-baseball embi kakhulu Iirekhodi ze-BaseRuns . KwaFarhan Zaidi, iiGiants zinomphathi omtsha ophakamileyo oya kukhuthazwa ukuba enze intshukumo kwaye angadityaniswanga nentsalela yoluhlu angazange aluhlanganise. Bakwanayo ne-middle-to-top-of-the-rotation starter e-Madison Bumgarner; ipasile yokukhulula kwi-Will Smith, uSam Dyson, uTony Watson, noMark Melancon; ilulwane lekona elinokuba ngcono kude ne-Oracle Park eBrandon Belt; kunye nezinye iziqwenga ezimbalwa ezihambelanayo ezinokufanela elinye iqela. Njengoko benditshilo Iimuvi zeVao zeMLB Show , olu luhlu lwakha lwaba nebhongo luye lwajika lwaba sisidumbu somnenga esika ngokuthe chu ukuya emazantsi. Imalunga nokuqwengwa ngu ukondla ukuphithizela oko kuya kondla inxalenye yeligi. Gxotha amahemuhemu orhwebo kwaye wonwabele isangqa sobomi, ngaphandle kokuba ungumlandeli waseSan Francisco.

Kuba ukuma kweli xesha lonyaka kuphelile, sisenokungakwazi ukuxela ukuba yimalini edityanisiweyo yejusi kaJulayi de siyibukele idlala iminyaka embalwa. Mhlawumbi kungcono ngale ndlela: Kwimidlalo, idla ngokuba mnandi hayi ukwazi into esiza kuyibona, kwaye imakethi yalo nyaka imdaka kakhulu ukubiza. Umhla wokugqibela wokurhweba uhlala ungumthombo wochulumanco kunye nemfihlakalo. Ngethamsanqa kubalandeli, loo nto inokuba yinyani ngomhla omnye obekiweyo kunangaphambili.

Enkosi ku UGerald Schifman ye I-baseball Prospectus kwaye UDan Hirsch ye-baseball-Reference kuncedo lophando.

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